Do we already have an effective COVID-19 Vaccine?

Probably, kinda yes, I think we do.

By Jeremy Neish

Could it be possible that one of the oldest most widely used vaccines in the world may in fact be protective against COVID-19 or at least some of its most deadly effects? The answer is looking like it might be a qualified yes. However, it's not helpful to all of us. But if true or even partially true, it could still go a very long way to building herd immunity much quicker and with many fewer deaths.

I'm talking about a vaccine that's been around since the 1940s, it's called BCG and it's for protection against TB (tuberculosis). Turns out BCG is protective against respiratory infections in general, viral or bacterial, and even some cancers.

In looking at the data, there does seem to be a correlation. To be sure, there are also a TON of variables, including all the things we've been talking about for weeks, social distancing, social practices, lack of testing, etc. So the data is noisy and so are the associated correlations. But I think we may have a light at the end of the tunnel, and it may be arriving sooner than many experts expected.

It's also not clear to me whether this vaccine actually protects you from getting the virus or just from going down the "deadly" path. More on that in a follow up post.

It's believed that the efficacy of this vaccine starts wearing off after about 45-50 years, which is notably correlated with the age at which complications and deadliness of COVID-19 rise significantly.

BCG Vaccinations vs Infections per 1 million population by country

The good news: Many countries routinely vaccinate against TB with the BCG vaccine. (Green on the sheet). Some countries have vaccinated at some point in the past, but are not currently (Orange). And some countries have never vaccinated, or only for a small subset of the population (Red). I believe the data shows fairly convincingly that if in fact you've been vaccinated, you seem to have a lower chance of either catching it or ending up dying from it. 

I think this may go a long way to understanding why countries like China, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and even Japan have managed to get this under control and keep it under control. Also why many countries like Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and to some extent the UK, have managed to see very little, or at least less, spreading/serious cases/deaths. Of course not everyone in these countries are vaccinated, and people move around a lot. So there are of course going to be issues in vaccinated countries. 

Of note, Italy has never routinely vaccinated with this vaccine.

The bad news for me and many of you: The US also does NOT and never has routinely vaccinated with BCG. And the worse news for me and many of you it's believed that the BCG vaccine is not very effective if given after the age of about 35 years old. At least not for preventing TB. Who knows regarding COVID-19.

Potential very very bad news: If in fact it is this vaccine that is protecting some populations, it could also be the explanation as to why children and the young in China and South Korea an other places don't seem to go down the serious path very often. And would partially explain why we seem to be seeing higher rates of serious complications in the young in the US, Italy and countries that do not vaccinate with BCG. This could mean many of us and our kids are in fact in much more risk than previously assumed from the China data. (China vaccinates with BCG from birth)

Minor bad news: This shot apparently hurts like hell and leaves a scar.

Could this be the magic bullet we’ve all been hoping for? Maybe, kinda, yes. At this point do I think we should spend weeks or months finding out? Absolutely not! We should ramp up production in countries that don’t routinely give this vaccination, and we should just start vaccinating. 

The potential downsides, which are tiny, are way less concerning that the potential upsides if this turns out to be an effective approach to tackling the beast known as the COVID-19 coronavirus. 

Dire circumstances require bold action. I believe this is one of many things we should start doing RIGHT NOW. So please spread the word and let those in power know about this. 

And by all means if you think this data is wrong, let me know.